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Victor Crouin v Mario Yanez (Sat 23 Nov 2019)

Match won by Victor Crouin. Result: 11-3,11-4,11-8.

Starting level for Victor Crouin: 40,031, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Starting level for Mario Yanez: 25,724, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Victor Crouin to win as he is currently playing 56% better than Mario Yanez.

Victor Crouin won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Victor Crouin played 120% better than Mario Yanez in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Victor Crouin actually played at a level of 47,597 and Mario Yanez at a level of 21,635. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 19% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 15% and 15% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Victor Crouin changes to +15% and Mario Yanez changes to -15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Victor Crouin becomes +3.3% and for Mario Yanez becomes -3.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Dominicana Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Victor Crouin: 84%, Mario Yanez: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Victor Crouin: 70%, Mario Yanez: 71%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Victor Crouin: 41,057, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Mario Yanez: 25,072, level confidence: 71%.