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Karim Abdel Gawad v Mohamed Elshorbagy (Sun 24 Nov 2019)

Match won by Karim Abdel Gawad. Result: 8-11,11-3,11-1,10-12,11-6.

Starting level for Karim Abdel Gawad: 69,136, level confidence: 55%.
Starting level for Mohamed Elshorbagy: 65,904, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Karim Abdel Gawad to win as he is currently playing 5% better than Mohamed Elshorbagy.

Karim Abdel Gawad won 60% of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 55% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Karim Abdel Gawad played 21% better than Mohamed Elshorbagy in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Karim Abdel Gawad actually played at a level of 74,293 and Mohamed Elshorbagy at a level of 61,330. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7.5% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Karim Abdel Gawad changes to +7.3% and Mohamed Elshorbagy changes to -4.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Karim Abdel Gawad becomes +1.8% and for Mohamed Elshorbagy becomes -1.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Channel Vas Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Karim Abdel Gawad: 74%, Mohamed Elshorbagy: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Karim Abdel Gawad: 69%, Mohamed Elshorbagy: 86%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Karim Abdel Gawad: 70,273, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Mohamed Elshorbagy: 65,178, level confidence: 86%.