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Alfredo Avila v Leonel Cardenas (Sun 24 Nov 2019)

Match won by Alfredo Avila. Result: 11-2,11-6,11-7.

Starting level for Alfredo Avila: 31,164, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for Leonel Cardenas: 32,567, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Leonel Cardenas to win as he is currently playing 5% better than Alfredo Avila.

Alfredo Avila won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alfredo Avila played 120% better than Leonel Cardenas in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Alfredo Avila actually played at a level of 47,253 and Leonel Cardenas at a level of 21,479. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 52% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alfredo Avila changes to +50% and Leonel Cardenas changes to -36%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alfredo Avila becomes +9.2% and for Leonel Cardenas becomes -6.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Saskatoon Boast Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Alfredo Avila is limited to +5.7% and Leonel Cardenas is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alfredo Avila: 78%, Leonel Cardenas: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alfredo Avila: 52%, Leonel Cardenas: 58%.

A final adjustment of +1.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Alfredo Avila: 32,969, level confidence: 52%.
Final level for Leonel Cardenas: 31,641, level confidence: 58%.