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Ben Morris v Thomas Knight (Tue 26 Nov 2019)

Match won by Thomas Knight. Result: 10-15,15-5,11-15,15-9,12-15.

Starting level for Ben Morris: 2,092, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Thomas Knight: 2,301, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Thomas Knight to win as he is currently playing 10% better than Ben Morris.

Thomas Knight won 60% of the games and 48% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 7% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Thomas Knight played 6% better than Ben Morris in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Thomas Knight actually played at a level of 2,258 and Ben Morris at a level of 2,132. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.9% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Thomas Knight changes to -1.6% and Ben Morris changes to +1.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Thomas Knight becomes -1.2% and for Ben Morris becomes +1.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Sussex Mens League 2019/2020' so the adjustment for Thomas Knight is -0.9% and for Ben Morris is +1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Thomas Knight: 91%, Ben Morris: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Thomas Knight: 90%, Ben Morris: 85%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ben Morris: 2,111, level confidence: 85%.
Final level for Thomas Knight: 2,278, level confidence: 90%.