SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Hamish Thornton v Malcolm Levy (Thu 28 Nov 2019)

Match won by Malcolm Levy. Result: 10-11,11-2,11-4,10-11,2-11.

Starting level for Hamish Thornton: 4,556, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for Malcolm Levy: 4,148, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Hamish Thornton to win as he is currently playing 10% better than Malcolm Levy.

Malcolm Levy won 60% of the games and 47% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 13% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Malcolm Levy played 5% better than Hamish Thornton in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Malcolm Levy actually played at a level of 4,447 and Hamish Thornton at a level of 4,249. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7.2% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Malcolm Levy changes to +5.5% and Hamish Thornton changes to -6.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Malcolm Levy becomes +2.6% and for Hamish Thornton becomes -3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Malcolm Levy is +2% and for Hamish Thornton is -2.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Malcolm Levy: 88%, Hamish Thornton: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Malcolm Levy: 82%, Hamish Thornton: 73%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Hamish Thornton: 4,451, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Malcolm Levy: 4,223, level confidence: 82%.