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Steve Baker v Toby Woolard (Thu 28 Nov 2019)

Match won by Steve Baker. Result: 11-4,11-10,11-5.

Starting level for Steve Baker: 2,333, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Toby Woolard: 1,764, level confidence: 59%.
Steve Baker to win as he is currently playing 32% better than Toby Woolard.

Steve Baker won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 74% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Steve Baker played 74% better than Toby Woolard in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Steve Baker actually played at a level of 2,674 and Toby Woolard at a level of 1,539. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 13% and 13% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Steve Baker changes to +10.1% and Toby Woolard changes to -13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Steve Baker becomes +4.7% and for Toby Woolard becomes -6.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Steve Baker is +3.5% and for Toby Woolard is -4.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Steve Baker: 86%, Toby Woolard: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Steve Baker: 75%, Toby Woolard: 67%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Steve Baker: 2,412, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Toby Woolard: 1,685, level confidence: 67%.