Steve Baker v Nathan Quilliam (Mon 02 Dec 2019)
Match won by Steve Baker. Result: 11-15,15-11,15-5,7-15,15-13.
Starting level for
Steve Baker:
2,409, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Nathan Quilliam:
2,142, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Steve Baker to win as he is currently playing
12% better than Nathan Quilliam.
Steve Baker won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 7% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Steve Baker played
9% better than Nathan Quilliam in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Steve Baker actually played at a level of
2,374 and Nathan Quilliam at a level of
2,174. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.5% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Steve Baker changes to -1.4% and Nathan Quilliam changes to +1.4%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Steve Baker becomes -1% and for Nathan Quilliam becomes +1%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Steve Baker is -0.8% and for Nathan Quilliam is +0.8%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Steve Baker: 86%, Nathan Quilliam: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Steve Baker: 85%, Nathan Quilliam: 86%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Steve Baker:
2,387, level confidence: 85%.
Final level for Nathan Quilliam:
2,155, level confidence: 86%.