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Mark Phillips v Thomas Knight (Tue 03 Dec 2019)

Match won by Thomas Knight. Result: 16-18,10-15,15-12,15-12,13-15.

Starting level for Mark Phillips: 3,067, level confidence: 87%. Set manually.
Starting level for Thomas Knight: 2,313, level confidence: 87%. Set manually.
Mark Phillips to win as he is currently playing 33% better than Thomas Knight.

Thomas Knight won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 4% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Thomas Knight played 9% better than Mark Phillips in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Thomas Knight actually played at a level of 2,775 and Mark Phillips at a level of 2,556. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 20% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 17% and 17% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Thomas Knight changes to +17% and Mark Phillips changes to -17%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Thomas Knight becomes +7.1% and for Mark Phillips becomes -6.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Sussex Mens League 2019/2020' so the adjustment for Thomas Knight is +5.3% and for Mark Phillips is -4.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Thomas Knight: 93%, Mark Phillips: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Thomas Knight: 78%, Mark Phillips: 78%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mark Phillips: 2,925, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Thomas Knight: 2,435, level confidence: 78%.