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Craig Archibold v Oscar Hill (Mon 02 Dec 2019)

Match won by Oscar Hill. Result: 3-11,5-11,5-11.

Starting level for Craig Archibold: 3,150, level confidence: 22%.
Starting level for Oscar Hill: 6,305, level confidence: 44%.
Oscar Hill to win as he is currently playing 100% better than Craig Archibold.

Oscar Hill won all of the games and 72% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 154% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Oscar Hill played 154% better than Craig Archibold in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Oscar Hill actually played at a level of 7,100 and Craig Archibold at a level of 2,797. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 8.8% and 8.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Oscar Hill changes to +4.4% and Craig Archibold changes to -8.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Oscar Hill becomes +2% and for Craig Archibold becomes -3.9%.

Given Oscar Hill's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 5.3% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Notts Team Leagues 2019-20' so the adjustment for Oscar Hill is +1.5% and for Craig Archibold is -2.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Oscar Hill: 66%, Craig Archibold: 47%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Oscar Hill: 59%, Craig Archibold: 42%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Craig Archibold: 3,057, level confidence: 42%.
Final level for Oscar Hill: 6,387, level confidence: 59%.