Tom Richards v Oscar Hill (Sat 30 Nov 2019)
Match won by Tom Richards. Result: 11-8,11-7,11-9.
Starting level for
Tom Richards:
37,461, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for
Oscar Hill:
6,284, level confidence: 63%.
Tom Richards to win as he is currently playing
496% better than Oscar Hill.
Tom Richards won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 38% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tom Richards played
43% better than Oscar Hill in this match.
Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Tom Richards was taking it easy by anything up to 47%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 10,474 and 37,461 without affecting his level.
As Tom Richards has played below his allowed range at 9,711, his level reduction is 7.9% before damping. On the assumption that Tom Richards would normally have been playing at level 19,808 (based on typical behaviour), Oscar Hill played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 48%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.1% and 18% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tom Richards changes to -3% and Oscar Hill changes to +18%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tom Richards becomes -1.2% and for Oscar Hill becomes +5.5%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Kent Canterbury Open 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tom Richards: 81%, Oscar Hill: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tom Richards: 40%, Oscar Hill: 39%.
Final level for Tom Richards:
37,035, level confidence: 40%.
Final level for Oscar Hill:
6,627, level confidence: 39%.