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Perry Malik v Ed Miles (Wed 04 Dec 2019)

Match won by Perry Malik. Result: 11-9,11-9,11-8.

Starting level for Perry Malik: 15,386, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for Ed Miles: 8,245, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Perry Malik to win as he is currently playing 87% better than Ed Miles.

Perry Malik won all of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 27% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Perry Malik played 36% better than Ed Miles in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Perry Malik was taking it easy by anything up to 10%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 12,084 and 15,386 without affecting his level.

As Perry Malik has played below his allowed range at 11,649, his level reduction is 3.7% before damping. On the assumption that Perry Malik would normally have been playing at level 13,820 (based on typical behaviour), Ed Miles played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 10.9%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.7% and 7.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Perry Malik changes to -2.6% and Ed Miles changes to +7.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Perry Malik becomes -1.2% and for Ed Miles becomes +2.8%.

Given Perry Malik's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 30% has been applied to his level change.

Given Ed Miles's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 12% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Perry Malik is -0.7% and for Ed Miles is +1.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Perry Malik: 90%, Ed Miles: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Perry Malik: 77%, Ed Miles: 75%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Perry Malik: 15,260, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Ed Miles: 8,387, level confidence: 75%.