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Alan Clyne v Max Forster (Fri 06 Dec 2019)

Match won by Alan Clyne. Result: 11-3,4-11,11-4,11-7.

Starting level for Alan Clyne: 38,307, level confidence: 55%.
Starting level for Max Forster: 21,029, level confidence: 67%.
Alan Clyne to win as he is currently playing 82% better than Max Forster.

Alan Clyne won 75% of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 48% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alan Clyne played 33% better than Max Forster in this match.

As Alan Clyne has played below his allowed range at 29,581, his level reduction is 6.1% before damping. On the assumption that Alan Clyne would normally have been playing at level 34,673 (based on typical behaviour), Max Forster played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 12%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.5% and 8.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alan Clyne changes to -4.5% and Max Forster changes to +7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alan Clyne becomes -1.4% and for Max Forster becomes +2.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Grange Open 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alan Clyne: 74%, Max Forster: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alan Clyne: 63%, Max Forster: 70%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Alan Clyne: 37,637, level confidence: 63%.
Final level for Max Forster: 21,512, level confidence: 70%.