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Imran Ali v Thomas Knight (Fri 06 Dec 2019)

Match won by Thomas Knight. Result: 5-15,7-15,7-15.

Starting level for Imran Ali: 736, level confidence: 19%.
Starting level for Thomas Knight: 2,405, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Thomas Knight to win as he is currently playing 227% better than Imran Ali.

Thomas Knight won all of the games and 70% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 137% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Thomas Knight played 137% better than Imran Ali in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Thomas Knight was taking it easy by anything up to 27%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,174 and 2,405 without affecting his level.

In this case, Thomas Knight played at level 1,746 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Imran Ali is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Thomas Knight changes to 0% and Imran Ali changes to 0%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Thomas Knight becomes 0% and for Imran Ali becomes 0%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Sussex Mens League 2019/2020' so the adjustment for Thomas Knight is 0% and for Imran Ali is 0%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Thomas Knight: 87%, Imran Ali: 44%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Thomas Knight: 74%, Imran Ali: 37%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Imran Ali: 735, level confidence: 37%.
Final level for Thomas Knight: 2,401, level confidence: 74%.