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Juan Camilo Vargas v Arshad Iqbal Burki (Wed 04 Dec 2019)

Match won by Juan Camilo Vargas. Result: 11-6,11-3,11-2.

Starting level for Juan Camilo Vargas: 27,064, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Starting level for Arshad Iqbal Burki: 8,474, level confidence: 45%.
Juan Camilo Vargas to win as he is currently playing 219% better than Arshad Iqbal Burki.

Juan Camilo Vargas won all of the games and 75% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 200% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Juan Camilo Vargas played 200% better than Arshad Iqbal Burki in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Juan Camilo Vargas was taking it easy by anything up to 27%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 14,619 and 27,064 without affecting his level.

In this case, Juan Camilo Vargas played at level 25,422 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Arshad Iqbal Burki is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Juan Camilo Vargas: 84%, Arshad Iqbal Burki: 67%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Juan Camilo Vargas: 81%, Arshad Iqbal Burki: 65%.

Final level for Juan Camilo Vargas: 27,064, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Arshad Iqbal Burki: 8,474, level confidence: 65%.