Leonel Cardenas v Cory McCartney (Wed 04 Dec 2019)
Match won by Leonel Cardenas. Result: 11-3,11-3,11-7.
Starting level for
Leonel Cardenas:
31,553, level confidence: 55%.
Starting level for
Cory McCartney:
7,544, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Leonel Cardenas to win as he is currently playing
318% better than Cory McCartney.
Leonel Cardenas won all of the games and 72% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 154% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Leonel Cardenas played
154% better than Cory McCartney in this match.
Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Leonel Cardenas was taking it easy by anything up to 36%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 12,938 and 31,553 without affecting his level.
In this case, Leonel Cardenas played at level 19,670 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Leonel Cardenas would normally have been playing at level 20,205 (based on typical behaviour), Cory McCartney played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.7%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.3% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Leonel Cardenas changes to 0% and Cory McCartney changes to +1%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Leonel Cardenas becomes 0% and for Cory McCartney becomes +0.5%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Securian Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Leonel Cardenas: 74%, Cory McCartney: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Leonel Cardenas: 58%, Cory McCartney: 67%.
Final level for Leonel Cardenas:
31,553, level confidence: 58%.
Final level for Cory McCartney:
7,583, level confidence: 67%.