Leonel Cardenas v David Baillargeon (Thu 05 Dec 2019)
Match won by Leonel Cardenas. Result: 12-10,8-11,11-1,11-4.
Starting level for
Leonel Cardenas:
31,459, level confidence: 58%.
Starting level for
David Baillargeon:
26,441, level confidence: 60%.
Leonel Cardenas to win as he is currently playing
19% better than David Baillargeon.
Leonel Cardenas won 75% of the games and 62% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 62% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Leonel Cardenas played
37% better than David Baillargeon in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Leonel Cardenas actually played at a level of
33,765 and David Baillargeon at a level of
24,635. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7.3% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Leonel Cardenas changes to +6.7% and David Baillargeon changes to -6.4%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Leonel Cardenas becomes +1.9% and for David Baillargeon becomes -1.9%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Securian Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Leonel Cardenas: 76%, David Baillargeon: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Leonel Cardenas: 71%, David Baillargeon: 72%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Leonel Cardenas:
31,901, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for David Baillargeon:
26,006, level confidence: 72%.