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Leonel Cardenas v Mike McCue (Sat 07 Dec 2019)

Match won by Leonel Cardenas. Result: 11-7,11-5,11-5.

Starting level for Leonel Cardenas: 32,021, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Starting level for Mike McCue: 24,776, level confidence: 59%.
Leonel Cardenas to win as he is currently playing 29% better than Mike McCue.

Leonel Cardenas won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Leonel Cardenas played 94% better than Mike McCue in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Leonel Cardenas actually played at a level of 39,243 and Mike McCue at a level of 20,216. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 23% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 20% and 20% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Leonel Cardenas changes to +17% and Mike McCue changes to -20%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Leonel Cardenas becomes +3.7% and for Mike McCue becomes -4.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Securian Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Leonel Cardenas: 84%, Mike McCue: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Leonel Cardenas: 68%, Mike McCue: 63%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Leonel Cardenas: 33,002, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Mike McCue: 23,910, level confidence: 63%.