Patrick Rooney v Connor Sheen (Wed 11 Dec 2019)
Match won by Patrick Rooney. Result: 11-2,8-11,12-10,11-6.
Starting level for
Patrick Rooney:
36,998, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Connor Sheen:
20,415, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Patrick Rooney to win as he is currently playing
81% better than Connor Sheen.
Patrick Rooney won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 45% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Patrick Rooney played
32% better than Connor Sheen in this match.
As Patrick Rooney has played below his allowed range at 28,228, his level reduction is 5.1% before damping. On the assumption that Patrick Rooney would normally have been playing at level 33,541 (based on typical behaviour), Connor Sheen played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 12%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.8% and 8.6% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney changes to -3.5% and Connor Sheen changes to +8.6%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney becomes -1.3% and for Connor Sheen becomes +2.5%.
Given Patrick Rooney's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 64% has been applied to his level change.
Given Connor Sheen's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 40% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Yorkshire Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Patrick Rooney is -0.6% and for Connor Sheen is +1.3%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Patrick Rooney: 90%, Connor Sheen: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Patrick Rooney: 77%, Connor Sheen: 74%.
A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Patrick Rooney:
36,879, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Connor Sheen:
20,735, level confidence: 74%.