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Richard Adelman v Perry Malik (Thu 12 Dec 2019)

Match won by Perry Malik. Result: 6-11,5-11,9-11.

Starting level for Richard Adelman: 3,862, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for Perry Malik: 15,258, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Perry Malik to win as he is currently playing 295% better than Richard Adelman.

Perry Malik won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 65% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Perry Malik played 65% better than Richard Adelman in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Perry Malik was taking it easy by anything up to 34%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 6,004 and 15,258 without affecting his level.

In this case, Perry Malik played at level 8,015 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Perry Malik would normally have been playing at level 10,080 (based on typical behaviour), Richard Adelman played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 26%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 12% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Perry Malik changes to 0% and Richard Adelman changes to +12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Perry Malik becomes 0% and for Richard Adelman becomes +4.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Sussex Mens League 2019/2020' so the adjustment for Perry Malik is 0% and for Richard Adelman is +3.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Perry Malik: 86%, Richard Adelman: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Perry Malik: 56%, Richard Adelman: 57%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Richard Adelman: 3,986, level confidence: 57%.
Final level for Perry Malik: 15,235, level confidence: 56%.