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Tsz Fung Yip v Bruce Burrowes (Tue 26 Nov 2019)

Match won by Tsz Fung Yip. Result: 11-4,11-5,11-5.

Starting level for Tsz Fung Yip: 36,234, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Bruce Burrowes: 6,542, level confidence: 38%.
Tsz Fung Yip to win as he is currently playing 454% better than Bruce Burrowes.

Tsz Fung Yip won all of the games and 70% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 136% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tsz Fung Yip played 136% better than Bruce Burrowes in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Tsz Fung Yip was taking it easy by anything up to 45%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 10,904 and 36,234 without affecting his level.

In this case, Tsz Fung Yip played at level 17,507 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Tsz Fung Yip would normally have been playing at level 19,877 (based on typical behaviour), Bruce Burrowes played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 14%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 5.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tsz Fung Yip changes to 0% and Bruce Burrowes changes to +5.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tsz Fung Yip becomes 0% and for Bruce Burrowes becomes +2.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior World Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tsz Fung Yip: 87%, Bruce Burrowes: 62%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tsz Fung Yip: 57%, Bruce Burrowes: 40%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tsz Fung Yip: 36,180, level confidence: 57%.
Final level for Bruce Burrowes: 6,684, level confidence: 40%.