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Borja Golan v Simon Rösner (Wed 27 Nov 2019)

Match won by Simon Rösner. Result: 3-11,6-11,9-11.

Starting level for Borja Golan: 41,138, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Starting level for Simon Rösner: 52,010, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Simon Rösner to win as he is currently playing 26% better than Borja Golan.

Simon Rösner won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Simon Rösner played 83% better than Borja Golan in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Simon Rösner actually played at a level of 62,630 and Borja Golan at a level of 34,162. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 20% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 18% and 18% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Simon Rösner changes to +18% and Borja Golan changes to -16%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Simon Rösner becomes +3.7% and for Borja Golan becomes -3.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior World Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Simon Rösner: 86%, Borja Golan: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Simon Rösner: 71%, Borja Golan: 76%.

A final adjustment of +0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Borja Golan: 40,342, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Simon Rösner: 53,598, level confidence: 71%.