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Campbell Grayson v Oisin Logan (Thu 28 Nov 2019)

Match won by Campbell Grayson. Result: 11-8,11-5,11-5.

Starting level for Campbell Grayson: 38,921, level confidence: 58%.
Starting level for Oisin Logan: 10,686, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Campbell Grayson to win as he is currently playing 264% better than Oisin Logan.

Campbell Grayson won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Campbell Grayson played 83% better than Oisin Logan in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Campbell Grayson was taking it easy by anything up to 31%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 18,502 and 38,921 without affecting his level.

In this case, Campbell Grayson played at level 22,929 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Campbell Grayson would normally have been playing at level 26,835 (based on typical behaviour), Oisin Logan played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 17%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 8.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Campbell Grayson changes to 0% and Oisin Logan changes to +5.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Campbell Grayson becomes 0% and for Oisin Logan becomes +2.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior World Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Campbell Grayson: 76%, Oisin Logan: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Campbell Grayson: 54%, Oisin Logan: 65%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Campbell Grayson: 38,863, level confidence: 54%.
Final level for Oisin Logan: 10,900, level confidence: 65%.