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Alan Clyne v Campbell Grayson (Thu 28 Nov 2019)

Match won by Alan Clyne. Result: 11-8,11-4,7-11,10-12,11-4.

Starting level for Alan Clyne: 38,939, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Campbell Grayson: 38,887, level confidence: 55%.
Alan Clyne to win as he is currently playing 0% better than Campbell Grayson.

Alan Clyne won 60% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 28% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alan Clyne played 15% better than Campbell Grayson in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Alan Clyne actually played at a level of 41,648 and Campbell Grayson at a level of 36,358. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alan Clyne changes to +5.1% and Campbell Grayson changes to -7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alan Clyne becomes +1.5% and for Campbell Grayson becomes -1.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior World Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alan Clyne: 87%, Campbell Grayson: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alan Clyne: 81%, Campbell Grayson: 69%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Alan Clyne: 39,500, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Campbell Grayson: 38,237, level confidence: 69%.