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Gregoire Marche v Juan Camilo Vargas (Fri 29 Nov 2019)

Match won by Gregoire Marche. Result: 11-6,11-2,11-7.

Starting level for Gregoire Marche: 50,899, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for Juan Camilo Vargas: 26,756, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Gregoire Marche to win as he is currently playing 90% better than Juan Camilo Vargas.

Gregoire Marche won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Gregoire Marche played 120% better than Juan Camilo Vargas in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Gregoire Marche actually played at a level of 54,736 and Juan Camilo Vargas at a level of 24,880. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7.5% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.4% and 5.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Gregoire Marche changes to +5.4% and Juan Camilo Vargas changes to -4.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Gregoire Marche becomes +1.5% and for Juan Camilo Vargas becomes -1.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior World Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Gregoire Marche: 79%, Juan Camilo Vargas: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Gregoire Marche: 73%, Juan Camilo Vargas: 78%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Gregoire Marche: 51,235, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Juan Camilo Vargas: 26,629, level confidence: 78%.