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Juan Camilo Vargas v Ko Youngjo (Fri 29 Nov 2019)

Match won by Juan Camilo Vargas. Result: 7-11,11-6,11-9,11-7.

Starting level for Juan Camilo Vargas: 26,518, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for Ko Youngjo: 15,334, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Juan Camilo Vargas to win as he is currently playing 73% better than Ko Youngjo.

Juan Camilo Vargas won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 21% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Juan Camilo Vargas played 24% better than Ko Youngjo in this match.

As Juan Camilo Vargas has played below his allowed range at 20,618, his level reduction is 8.7% before damping. On the assumption that Juan Camilo Vargas would normally have been playing at level 24,374 (based on typical behaviour), Ko Youngjo played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 13%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.5% and 10% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Juan Camilo Vargas changes to -6.3% and Ko Youngjo changes to +10%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Juan Camilo Vargas becomes -1.9% and for Ko Youngjo becomes +2.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior World Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Juan Camilo Vargas: 88%, Ko Youngjo: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Juan Camilo Vargas: 75%, Ko Youngjo: 74%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Juan Camilo Vargas: 25,981, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Ko Youngjo: 15,754, level confidence: 74%.