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Gregoire Marche v Ko Youngjo (Fri 29 Nov 2019)

Match won by Gregoire Marche. Result: 12-10,11-1,11-7.

Starting level for Gregoire Marche: 51,306, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Starting level for Ko Youngjo: 15,815, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Gregoire Marche to win as he is currently playing 224% better than Ko Youngjo.

Gregoire Marche won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 89% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Gregoire Marche played 89% better than Ko Youngjo in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Gregoire Marche was taking it easy by anything up to 27%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 27,313 and 51,306 without affecting his level.

In this case, Gregoire Marche played at level 33,441 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Gregoire Marche would normally have been playing at level 37,435 (based on typical behaviour), Ko Youngjo played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 12%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 6.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Gregoire Marche changes to 0% and Ko Youngjo changes to +6.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Gregoire Marche becomes 0% and for Ko Youngjo becomes +2.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior World Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Gregoire Marche: 92%, Ko Youngjo: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Gregoire Marche: 70%, Ko Youngjo: 66%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Gregoire Marche: 51,229, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Ko Youngjo: 16,126, level confidence: 66%.