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Ivan Yuen v Juan Camilo Vargas (Fri 29 Nov 2019)

Match won by Juan Camilo Vargas. Result: 9-11,11-7,8-11,11-4,10-12.

Starting level for Ivan Yuen: 36,002, level confidence: 89%. Set manually.
Starting level for Juan Camilo Vargas: 26,036, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Ivan Yuen to win as he is currently playing 38% better than Juan Camilo Vargas.

Juan Camilo Vargas won 60% of the games and 48% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 9% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Juan Camilo Vargas played 5% better than Ivan Yuen in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Juan Camilo Vargas actually played at a level of 31,441 and Ivan Yuen at a level of 29,813. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 21% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 17% and 17% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Juan Camilo Vargas changes to +17% and Ivan Yuen changes to -14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Juan Camilo Vargas becomes +4% and for Ivan Yuen becomes -3.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior World Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Juan Camilo Vargas: 86%, Ivan Yuen: 94%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Juan Camilo Vargas: 72%, Ivan Yuen: 78%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ivan Yuen: 34,903, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Juan Camilo Vargas: 27,081, level confidence: 72%.