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James Willstrop v Sodiq Taiwo (Sat 30 Nov 2019)

Match won by James Willstrop. Result: 14-12,11-7,11-5.

Starting level for James Willstrop: 46,618, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Sodiq Taiwo: 5,012, level confidence: 28%.
James Willstrop to win as he is currently playing 830% better than Sodiq Taiwo.

James Willstrop won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Willstrop played 52% better than Sodiq Taiwo in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that James Willstrop was taking it easy by anything up to 58%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 8,354 and 46,618 without affecting his level.

As James Willstrop has played below his allowed range at 7,968, his level reduction is 4.8% before damping. On the assumption that James Willstrop would normally have been playing at level 19,734 (based on typical behaviour), Sodiq Taiwo played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 61%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.6% and 17% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Willstrop changes to -0.7% and Sodiq Taiwo changes to +17%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Willstrop becomes -0.3% and for Sodiq Taiwo becomes +5.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior World Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Willstrop: 81%, Sodiq Taiwo: 53%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Willstrop: 33%, Sodiq Taiwo: 22%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for James Willstrop: 46,432, level confidence: 33%.
Final level for Sodiq Taiwo: 5,286, level confidence: 22%.