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Tarek Momen v Chris Hanson (Sun 01 Dec 2019)

Match won by Tarek Momen. Result: 11-2,11-9,11-8.

Starting level for Tarek Momen: 66,372, level confidence: 57%.
Starting level for Chris Hanson: 31,832, level confidence: 60%.
Tarek Momen to win as he is currently playing 109% better than Chris Hanson.

Tarek Momen won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 74% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tarek Momen played 74% better than Chris Hanson in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Tarek Momen was taking it easy by anything up to 13%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 49,667 and 66,372 without affecting his level.

In this case, Tarek Momen played at level 56,341 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Tarek Momen would normally have been playing at level 57,415 (based on typical behaviour), Chris Hanson played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.9%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tarek Momen changes to 0% and Chris Hanson changes to +1.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tarek Momen becomes 0% and for Chris Hanson becomes +0.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior World Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tarek Momen: 75%, Chris Hanson: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tarek Momen: 69%, Chris Hanson: 70%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tarek Momen: 66,331, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Chris Hanson: 32,232, level confidence: 70%.