SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Karim Abdel Gawad v Andrew Douglas (Sun 01 Dec 2019)

Match won by Karim Abdel Gawad. Result: 8-11,11-9,11-8,11-6.

Starting level for Karim Abdel Gawad: 70,273, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for Andrew Douglas: 25,104, level confidence: 60%.
Karim Abdel Gawad to win as he is currently playing 180% better than Andrew Douglas.

Karim Abdel Gawad won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 21% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Karim Abdel Gawad played 24% better than Andrew Douglas in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Karim Abdel Gawad was taking it easy by anything up to 22%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 42,583 and 70,273 without affecting his level.

As Karim Abdel Gawad has played below his allowed range at 36,341, his level reduction is 17% before damping. On the assumption that Karim Abdel Gawad would normally have been playing at level 54,703 (based on typical behaviour), Andrew Douglas played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 33%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 9.9% and 18% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Karim Abdel Gawad changes to -8.8% and Andrew Douglas changes to +18%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Karim Abdel Gawad becomes -2% and for Andrew Douglas becomes +4.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior World Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Karim Abdel Gawad: 82%, Andrew Douglas: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Karim Abdel Gawad: 55%, Andrew Douglas: 51%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Karim Abdel Gawad: 68,728, level confidence: 55%.
Final level for Andrew Douglas: 26,191, level confidence: 51%.