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Dimitri Steinmann v Todd Harrity (Sun 01 Dec 2019)

Match won by Dimitri Steinmann. Result: 11-5,5-11,11-5,11-5.

Starting level for Dimitri Steinmann: 30,027, level confidence: 53%.
Starting level for Todd Harrity: 35,875, level confidence: 63%.
Todd Harrity to win as he is currently playing 19% better than Dimitri Steinmann.

Dimitri Steinmann won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 46% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dimitri Steinmann played 32% better than Todd Harrity in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Dimitri Steinmann actually played at a level of 37,706 and Todd Harrity at a level of 28,569. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 26% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dimitri Steinmann changes to +23% and Todd Harrity changes to -19%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dimitri Steinmann becomes +4.9% and for Todd Harrity becomes -4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior World Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dimitri Steinmann: 73%, Todd Harrity: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dimitri Steinmann: 58%, Todd Harrity: 63%.

A final adjustment of +0.7% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Dimitri Steinmann: 31,362, level confidence: 58%.
Final level for Todd Harrity: 35,115, level confidence: 63%.