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Borja Golan v Dimitri Steinmann (Tue 03 Dec 2019)

Match won by Borja Golan. Result: 7-11,11-6,10-12,11-6,11-2.

Starting level for Borja Golan: 40,624, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Starting level for Dimitri Steinmann: 31,479, level confidence: 57%.
Borja Golan to win as he is currently playing 29% better than Dimitri Steinmann.

Borja Golan won 60% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 35% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Borja Golan played 16% better than Dimitri Steinmann in this match.

As Borja Golan has played below his allowed range at 37,745, his level reduction is 3.1% before damping. On the assumption that Borja Golan would normally have been playing at level 39,763 (based on typical behaviour), Dimitri Steinmann played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.2%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.7% and 3.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Borja Golan changes to -1.9% and Dimitri Steinmann changes to +3.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Borja Golan becomes -0.7% and for Dimitri Steinmann becomes +1.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior World Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Borja Golan: 91%, Dimitri Steinmann: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Borja Golan: 86%, Dimitri Steinmann: 72%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Borja Golan: 40,196, level confidence: 86%.
Final level for Dimitri Steinmann: 31,915, level confidence: 72%.