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Todd Harrity v Christopher Binnie (Wed 04 Dec 2019)

Match won by Todd Harrity. Result: 11-4,11-7,11-2.

Starting level for Todd Harrity: 35,426, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for Christopher Binnie: 27,641, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Todd Harrity to win as he is currently playing 28% better than Christopher Binnie.

Todd Harrity won all of the games and 72% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 154% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Todd Harrity played 154% better than Christopher Binnie in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Todd Harrity actually played at a level of 49,857 and Christopher Binnie at a level of 19,641. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 41% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 35% and 35% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Todd Harrity changes to +35% and Christopher Binnie changes to -26%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Todd Harrity becomes +6.7% and for Christopher Binnie becomes -5.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior World Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Todd Harrity is limited to +5.5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Todd Harrity: 79%, Christopher Binnie: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Todd Harrity: 56%, Christopher Binnie: 63%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Todd Harrity: 37,319, level confidence: 56%.
Final level for Christopher Binnie: 26,382, level confidence: 63%.