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Robertino Pezzota v Juan Camilo Vargas (Wed 04 Dec 2019)

Match won by Robertino Pezzota. Result: 3-11,11-4,13-11,7-11,11-8.

Starting level for Robertino Pezzota: 26,447, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Juan Camilo Vargas: 27,208, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Juan Camilo Vargas to win as he is currently playing 3% better than Robertino Pezzota.

Robertino Pezzota won 60% of the games and 50% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 0% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Robertino Pezzota played 8% better than Juan Camilo Vargas in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Robertino Pezzota actually played at a level of 27,813 and Juan Camilo Vargas at a level of 25,872. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.2% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Robertino Pezzota changes to +5.1% and Juan Camilo Vargas changes to -4.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Robertino Pezzota becomes +1.6% and for Juan Camilo Vargas becomes -1.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior World Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Robertino Pezzota: 87%, Juan Camilo Vargas: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Robertino Pezzota: 83%, Juan Camilo Vargas: 86%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Robertino Pezzota: 26,825, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Juan Camilo Vargas: 26,776, level confidence: 86%.