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James Willstrop v Campbell Grayson (Thu 05 Dec 2019)

Match won by James Willstrop. Result: 12-10,11-6,11-5.

Starting level for James Willstrop: 46,137, level confidence: 32%.
Starting level for Campbell Grayson: 38,920, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
James Willstrop to win as he is currently playing 19% better than Campbell Grayson.

James Willstrop won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 62% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Willstrop played 62% better than Campbell Grayson in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like James Willstrop actually played at a level of 53,919 and Campbell Grayson at a level of 33,303. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Willstrop changes to +15% and Campbell Grayson changes to -6.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Willstrop becomes +3.3% and for Campbell Grayson becomes -1.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior World Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Willstrop: 57%, Campbell Grayson: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Willstrop: 48%, Campbell Grayson: 73%.

A final adjustment of -0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for James Willstrop: 47,344, level confidence: 48%.
Final level for Campbell Grayson: 38,285, level confidence: 73%.