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Christopher Binnie v Juan Camilo Vargas (Fri 06 Dec 2019)

Match won by Christopher Binnie. Result: 11-7,11-9,11-6.

Starting level for Christopher Binnie: 26,361, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for Juan Camilo Vargas: 26,918, level confidence: 89%. Set manually.
Juan Camilo Vargas to win as he is currently playing 2% better than Christopher Binnie.

Christopher Binnie won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Christopher Binnie played 52% better than Juan Camilo Vargas in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Christopher Binnie actually played at a level of 32,804 and Juan Camilo Vargas at a level of 21,631. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 24% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Christopher Binnie changes to +24% and Juan Camilo Vargas changes to -16%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Christopher Binnie becomes +5.2% and for Juan Camilo Vargas becomes -3.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior World Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Christopher Binnie: 79%, Juan Camilo Vargas: 94%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Christopher Binnie: 63%, Juan Camilo Vargas: 76%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Christopher Binnie: 27,587, level confidence: 63%.
Final level for Juan Camilo Vargas: 26,055, level confidence: 76%.