Todd Harrity v Robertino Pezzota (Sat 07 Dec 2019)
Match won by Todd Harrity. Result: 11-5,8-11,11-6,11-7.
Starting level for
Todd Harrity:
36,813, level confidence: 55%.
Starting level for
Robertino Pezzota:
26,526, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Todd Harrity to win as he is currently playing
39% better than Robertino Pezzota.
Todd Harrity won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 41% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Todd Harrity played
30% better than Robertino Pezzota in this match.
In this case, Todd Harrity played at level 35,083 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Todd Harrity would normally have been playing at level 35,582 (based on typical behaviour), Robertino Pezzota played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.4%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.2% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Todd Harrity changes to 0% and Robertino Pezzota changes to +0.8%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Todd Harrity becomes 0% and for Robertino Pezzota becomes +0.3%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior World Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Todd Harrity: 74%, Robertino Pezzota: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Todd Harrity: 72%, Robertino Pezzota: 88%.
A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Todd Harrity:
36,683, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Robertino Pezzota:
26,757, level confidence: 88%.