Ivan Yuen v Tsz Fung Yip (Sun 08 Dec 2019)
Match won by Ivan Yuen. Result: 12-14,11-2,11-8,11-3.
Starting level for
Ivan Yuen:
34,927, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Tsz Fung Yip:
37,389, level confidence: 61%.
Tsz Fung Yip to win as he is currently playing
7% better than Ivan Yuen.
Ivan Yuen won 75% of the games and 63% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 67% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ivan Yuen played
39% better than Tsz Fung Yip in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ivan Yuen actually played at a level of
42,567 and Tsz Fung Yip at a level of
30,679. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 22% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ivan Yuen changes to +17% and Tsz Fung Yip changes to -21%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ivan Yuen becomes +3.8% and for Tsz Fung Yip becomes -4.4%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior World Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ivan Yuen: 87%, Tsz Fung Yip: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ivan Yuen: 71%, Tsz Fung Yip: 64%.
A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Ivan Yuen:
36,159, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Tsz Fung Yip:
35,993, level confidence: 64%.