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Raphael Kandra v Alan Clyne (Mon 09 Dec 2019)

Match won by Raphael Kandra. Result: 8-11,11-8,11-4,11-9.

Starting level for Raphael Kandra: 43,402, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Alan Clyne: 37,967, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Raphael Kandra to win as he is currently playing 14% better than Alan Clyne.

Raphael Kandra won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 28% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Raphael Kandra played 26% better than Alan Clyne in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Raphael Kandra actually played at a level of 45,572 and Alan Clyne at a level of 36,159. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Raphael Kandra changes to +4.7% and Alan Clyne changes to -3.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Raphael Kandra becomes +1.4% and for Alan Clyne becomes -1.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior World Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Raphael Kandra: 81%, Alan Clyne: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Raphael Kandra: 77%, Alan Clyne: 84%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Raphael Kandra: 43,909, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Alan Clyne: 37,579, level confidence: 84%.