Tarek Momen v Joel Makin (Tue 10 Dec 2019)
Match won by Joel Makin. Result: 9-11,15-13,2-11,11-4,9-11.
Starting level for
Tarek Momen:
66,461, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for
Joel Makin:
54,209, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Tarek Momen to win as he is currently playing
23% better than Joel Makin.
Joel Makin won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 9% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joel Makin played
10% better than Tarek Momen in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Joel Makin actually played at a level of
62,859 and Tarek Momen at a level of
57,315. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 16% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joel Makin changes to +12% and Tarek Momen changes to -14%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joel Makin becomes +2.6% and for Tarek Momen becomes -3%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior World Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joel Makin: 90%, Tarek Momen: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joel Makin: 78%, Tarek Momen: 70%.
A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Tarek Momen:
64,637, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Joel Makin:
55,578, level confidence: 78%.