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Karim Abdel Gawad v Peter Creed (Tue 10 Dec 2019)

Match won by Karim Abdel Gawad. Result: 12-10,11-3,11-7.

Starting level for Karim Abdel Gawad: 67,505, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for Peter Creed: 27,997, level confidence: 59%.
Karim Abdel Gawad to win as he is currently playing 141% better than Peter Creed.

Karim Abdel Gawad won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 70% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Karim Abdel Gawad played 70% better than Peter Creed in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Karim Abdel Gawad was taking it easy by anything up to 18%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 45,867 and 67,505 without affecting his level.

In this case, Karim Abdel Gawad played at level 51,462 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Karim Abdel Gawad would normally have been playing at level 55,644 (based on typical behaviour), Peter Creed played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 8.1%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 5.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Karim Abdel Gawad changes to 0% and Peter Creed changes to +5.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Karim Abdel Gawad becomes 0% and for Peter Creed becomes +1.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior World Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Karim Abdel Gawad: 77%, Peter Creed: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Karim Abdel Gawad: 65%, Peter Creed: 65%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Karim Abdel Gawad: 67,225, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Peter Creed: 28,571, level confidence: 65%.