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James Willstrop v Gregory Gaultier (Tue 10 Dec 2019)

Match won by Gregory Gaultier. Result: 8-11,5-11,5-11.

Starting level for James Willstrop: 47,659, level confidence: 48%.
Starting level for Gregory Gaultier: 56,206, level confidence: 57%.
Gregory Gaultier to win as he is currently playing 18% better than James Willstrop.

Gregory Gaultier won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Gregory Gaultier played 83% better than James Willstrop in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Gregory Gaultier actually played at a level of 70,078 and James Willstrop at a level of 38,225. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 25% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Gregory Gaultier changes to +19% and James Willstrop changes to -23%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Gregory Gaultier becomes +3.7% and for James Willstrop becomes -4.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior World Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Gregory Gaultier: 75%, James Willstrop: 69%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Gregory Gaultier: 61%, James Willstrop: 55%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for James Willstrop: 45,914, level confidence: 55%.
Final level for Gregory Gaultier: 57,948, level confidence: 61%.