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Jean-Pierre Brits v Juan Camilo Vargas (Thu 12 Dec 2019)

Match won by Juan Camilo Vargas. Result: 7-11,11-13,4-11.

Starting level for Jean-Pierre Brits: 21,057, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Juan Camilo Vargas: 25,870, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Juan Camilo Vargas to win as he is currently playing 23% better than Jean-Pierre Brits.

Juan Camilo Vargas won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 59% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Juan Camilo Vargas played 58% better than Jean-Pierre Brits in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Juan Camilo Vargas actually played at a level of 29,314 and Jean-Pierre Brits at a level of 18,583. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Juan Camilo Vargas changes to +10.6% and Jean-Pierre Brits changes to -12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Juan Camilo Vargas becomes +2.7% and for Jean-Pierre Brits becomes -3.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior World Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Juan Camilo Vargas: 86%, Jean-Pierre Brits: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Juan Camilo Vargas: 76%, Jean-Pierre Brits: 72%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jean-Pierre Brits: 20,526, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Juan Camilo Vargas: 26,434, level confidence: 76%.