Todd Harrity v Shawn Delierre (Sun 15 Dec 2019)
Match won by Todd Harrity. Result: 11-5,15-13,11-8.
Starting level for
Todd Harrity:
36,683, level confidence: 70%.
Starting level for
Shawn Delierre:
27,073, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Todd Harrity to win as he is currently playing
35% better than Shawn Delierre.
Todd Harrity won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 42% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Todd Harrity played
46% better than Shawn Delierre in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Todd Harrity actually played at a level of
38,143 and Shawn Delierre at a level of
26,037. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.4% and 3.4% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Todd Harrity changes to +3.4% and Shawn Delierre changes to -2.8%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Todd Harrity becomes +1.2% and for Shawn Delierre becomes -1.1%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior World Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Todd Harrity: 83%, Shawn Delierre: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Todd Harrity: 80%, Shawn Delierre: 88%.
A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Todd Harrity:
36,849, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Shawn Delierre:
26,954, level confidence: 88%.