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Ivan Yuen v Rex Hedrick (Tue 17 Dec 2019)

Match won by Ivan Yuen. Result: 13-11,11-4,11-8.

Starting level for Ivan Yuen: 36,196, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Rex Hedrick: 33,504, level confidence: 67%.
Ivan Yuen to win as he is currently playing 8% better than Rex Hedrick.

Ivan Yuen won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 52% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ivan Yuen played 53% better than Rex Hedrick in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ivan Yuen actually played at a level of 43,090 and Rex Hedrick at a level of 28,144. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 19% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ivan Yuen changes to +18% and Rex Hedrick changes to -18%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ivan Yuen becomes +3.9% and for Rex Hedrick becomes -4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior World Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ivan Yuen: 83%, Rex Hedrick: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ivan Yuen: 70%, Rex Hedrick: 69%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ivan Yuen: 37,370, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Rex Hedrick: 32,356, level confidence: 69%.