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Patrick Rooney v Charlie Lee (Wed 08 Jan 2020)

Match won by Patrick Rooney. Result: 11-8,11-6,12-10.

Starting level for Patrick Rooney: 37,141, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Charlie Lee: 23,242, level confidence: 21%.
Patrick Rooney to win as he is currently playing 60% better than Charlie Lee.

Patrick Rooney won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 42% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Patrick Rooney played 46% better than Charlie Lee in this match.

In this case, Patrick Rooney played at level 34,394 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Patrick Rooney would normally have been playing at level 34,846 (based on typical behaviour), Charlie Lee played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.3%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney changes to 0% and Charlie Lee changes to +1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney becomes 0% and for Charlie Lee becomes +0.4%.

Given Charlie Lee's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 45% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Patrick Rooney is 0% and for Charlie Lee is 0%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Patrick Rooney: 82%, Charlie Lee: 46%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Patrick Rooney: 79%, Charlie Lee: 44%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Patrick Rooney: 37,085, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Charlie Lee: 23,260, level confidence: 44%.