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Matthew Peel v Thomas Knight (Tue 07 Jan 2020)

Match won by Matthew Peel. Result: 15-10,8-15,13-15,16-14,15-13.

Starting level for Matthew Peel: 2,193, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Thomas Knight: 2,427, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Thomas Knight to win as he is currently playing 11% better than Matthew Peel.

Matthew Peel won 60% of the games and 50% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 0% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Matthew Peel played 8% better than Thomas Knight in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Matthew Peel actually played at a level of 2,392 and Thomas Knight at a level of 2,225. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 9.1% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Matthew Peel changes to +8.6% and Thomas Knight changes to -8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Matthew Peel becomes +4.3% and for Thomas Knight becomes -3.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Sussex Mens League 2019/2020' so the adjustment for Matthew Peel is +3.2% and for Thomas Knight is -2.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Matthew Peel: 83%, Thomas Knight: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Matthew Peel: 76%, Thomas Knight: 79%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Matthew Peel: 2,260, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Thomas Knight: 2,354, level confidence: 79%.