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Abhay Singh v Patrick Rooney (Wed 15 Jan 2020)

Match won by Patrick Rooney. Result: 8-11,11-8,6-11,4-11.

Starting level for Abhay Singh: 22,096, level confidence: 43%.
Starting level for Patrick Rooney: 37,219, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Patrick Rooney to win as he is currently playing 68% better than Abhay Singh.

Patrick Rooney won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 41% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Patrick Rooney played 30% better than Abhay Singh in this match.

As Patrick Rooney has played below his allowed range at 30,026, his level reduction is 4.2% before damping. On the assumption that Patrick Rooney would normally have been playing at level 34,456 (based on typical behaviour), Abhay Singh played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9.4%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.2% and 7.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney changes to -1.8% and Abhay Singh changes to +7.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney becomes -0.7% and for Abhay Singh becomes +2.1%.

Given Patrick Rooney's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 65% has been applied to his level change.

Given Abhay Singh's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 43% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Yorkshire Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Patrick Rooney is -0.3% and for Abhay Singh is +1.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Patrick Rooney: 88%, Abhay Singh: 65%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Patrick Rooney: 77%, Abhay Singh: 57%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Abhay Singh: 22,398, level confidence: 57%.
Final level for Patrick Rooney: 37,197, level confidence: 77%.