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Baptiste Masotti v Adrian Waller (Sun 12 Jan 2020)

Match won by Baptiste Masotti. Result: 11-13,11-7,11-8,11-4.

Starting level for Baptiste Masotti: 37,783, level confidence: 53%.
Starting level for Adrian Waller: 49,012, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Adrian Waller to win as he is currently playing 30% better than Baptiste Masotti.

Baptiste Masotti won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 38% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Baptiste Masotti played 29% better than Adrian Waller in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Baptiste Masotti actually played at a level of 48,900 and Adrian Waller at a level of 37,870. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 29% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 25% and 25% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Baptiste Masotti changes to +25% and Adrian Waller changes to -17%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Baptiste Masotti becomes +5.1% and for Adrian Waller becomes -3.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Tournament Of Champions' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Baptiste Masotti: 72%, Adrian Waller: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Baptiste Masotti: 56%, Adrian Waller: 67%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Baptiste Masotti: 39,548, level confidence: 56%.
Final level for Adrian Waller: 47,394, level confidence: 67%.