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Leo Au v Todd Harrity (Sun 12 Jan 2020)

Match won by Leo Au. Result: 11-5,7-11,11-7,6-11,11-8.

Starting level for Leo Au: 43,843, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for Todd Harrity: 35,698, level confidence: 66%.
Leo Au to win as he is currently playing 23% better than Todd Harrity.

Leo Au won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 10% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Leo Au played 10% better than Todd Harrity in this match.

As Leo Au has played below his allowed range at 40,904, his level reduction is 4.3% before damping. On the assumption that Leo Au would normally have been playing at level 43,245 (based on typical behaviour), Todd Harrity played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Leo Au changes to -3.8% and Todd Harrity changes to +4.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Leo Au becomes -1.3% and for Todd Harrity becomes +1.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Tournament Of Champions' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Leo Au: 82%, Todd Harrity: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Leo Au: 78%, Todd Harrity: 77%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Leo Au: 43,208, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Todd Harrity: 36,227, level confidence: 77%.